It's been a little quite on my blog on the topic of investing/trading. The posts (or lack thereof) reflect my activity in the stock market which has been very transitioning out of riskier ventures and into longer term more stable ones.

There are certainly lots of opportunities out there, but I am wary of the broader market and prefer to be in specific stocks that I think have the ability to buck the trends. So here is what I have my eyes on for the roller coaster ride of stock markets 2008.

Mutual Funds

CGM Focus (CGMFX)
I've liked this one for some time so you can always read the older articles for my historical take on it. Moving forward, what I like about this fund is that they turn on a dime and move the money where the action is vs. staying with their picks. If they are wrong, they take the short term hit and move on. This can be a bad thing if the manager keeps making the wrong decision, but in this case, they have a fantastic track record so I'm sticking with them. I don't always get time to actively manage my portfolio and this fund does it for me.

T. Rowe Price Emerging Europe & Mediterranean Fund (TREMX)
This fund has done very well for me as well and I continue to believe that the emerging markets in Europe are the place to be in the region. Concerns here of course are around the ever weakening dollar. Good news with the emerging markets at least is that they are going to be mostly doing business in the region to start up so should not be impacted as much as Old Europe.

Julius Baer International Equity II A (JETAX)
I am on an international rotation plan here so this is another one of the my choices to participate in a variety of markets while limiting risk.

ETFs

iShares MSCI Brazil Index (EWZ)
One the markets that I do want to increase my exposure to is that of Brazil. With that goal in mind, I like this ETF and plan on building up a position during the course of the next couple of months.

iShares S&P Latin America 40 Index (ILF)
I like more than just Brazil in Latin America and although this is won't be a huge position, I do want to have some stake in markets in the larger area.

BLDRS Emerging Markets 50 ADR Index (ADRE)
Continuing on with the theme, I like this particular ETF for it's exposure to a wide array of emerging markets. I believe that even if the broader markets are correcting, the companies represented in this ETF can continue to grow and their financial results will allow them to fend off or entirely buck downward trends in the market.

Stocks

Google (GOOG)
Even if none of the other ventures makes a huge impact to earnings this year, I still believe that the money making factory that is the search engine will continue to defy earnings estimates and I want to continue to take part in the resulting stock price increases. With the spanking that that this stock (and others took on 1/4/2008), I plan on establishing new positions at the current price and definitely if it drops any lower.

GameStop (GME)
A great way to play the increasing money to be had in the video game market. Risk here is reduced consumer spending so I plan on maintaining tight stops for this one no matter how much

ICICI Bank (IBN)
As India grows and prospers, so does IBN. Of the various financial institutions, I think that these folks are best positioned to benefit from the India Story.

Altria (MO)
When times are tough, I like the nice stable cash flow machine that is Altria. And if they finally break up the company, even better prospects here for this year.

Apple (AAPL)
If it wasn't for growing concerns about consumer spending, I would say that this is an absolute buy at the current <$185 levels. I am cautious about Apple for the first half of 2008 but I do think that there is a trade to be had between the current levels and $200 because of the potential for new product announcements and related buildup in the stock's price this month. If it drops further than where it is right now, I will definitely be in accumulation mode.

That's it for this edition. Key trigger for this month is of course The Fed. I don't really pull for bailouts very much, but I do like to profit from them so a 50 basis point is what I'm hoping for, but even with recent bad news I don't really expect more than 25.

Good Trading.

AHA.

Mister-Softee delivers! It's an old school solid earnings season with now both Intel and Microsoft announcing great numbers. If it wasn't for Broadcom torpedoing the Semis, we be up a couple of points on the Nasdaq. Regardless, tomorrow should be a solid day for Tech in general.

Based on what was said during the call, I may step into a stock that's already been good to me but I was starting to consider too expensive before today - GameSpot (GME). And it's not just Microsoft's call that I believe foreshadows another 15%+ gain for this stock, it's also Nintendo who announced that a doubling of their profits.

The plan it to get in under $57.50 and start getting out at $68.50.

The winners just don't stop! Whether it's LULU, AAPL, RIMM, QQQQ (options), there have been some solid gains over the last week. I had hoped to find an entry into GOOG, but that didn't really pan out. Curious to see what happens at their analyst day tomorrow, in particular relating to the gPhone (Google Phone) for which rumors abound.

Tomorrow will probably be a slightly down day because of AMZN and BRCM but worst case it should present a buying opportunity to expand a couple of positions:

1. Nasdaq-100 (QQQQ) options
I wouldn't be surprised to see a rate cut next week so in anticipation if the market moves up and the gains on these positions cross 25%, I plan on expanding my position.

2. Garmin (GRMN)
Flirting with its 52 week high with good momentum should present a good play if it breaks $123. Based on partner/customer earnings and predictions, this should be a banner season for the company going into the holidays.

3. Intuitive Surgical (ISRG)
This is one of those "I wish I had bought it stocks." The financials, technology, prospects, management have all looked great and continue to do so. There was a buying opportunity a couple of weeks ago but I blew it by hesitating and not hitting the "Submit" button. Oh well, I hate to chase stocks, but I will step into this in 10% increments of my planned total investment and go from there.

The market seems to be holding together well so all the stocks and mutual funds continue to do well overall but it's tricky finding new places to park cash.

AHA.

For anyone who's been keeping up with the blog, it's been a great week! LULU @ $56, AAPL @ $173 and record highs for the mutual funds as well... Hard to find anything to really complain about. Except of course for the very few buying opportunities.

I have been selling into the strength which has both pros and cons... On the plus side, locking in profits is never a bad thing, especially when they are >30% in a couple of weeks and even more so for some of the options. The downside is that I am winding up less invested overall and maintaining a 50% cash level only by expanding some of the QQQQ positions. I do believe that the tech earnings season, which we are still in the middle of, will be great for the Jan 2008 options.

This coming weekend is research time so watch for new positions before Monday. One thing that I am definitely interested in adding to the ETF bucket, but doesn't exist yet, is a tracking one for the recently announced NASDAQ Q-50 index. It tracks stocks that are eligible for entry into the NASDAQ 100 in the next round which takes place annually in December. If you find one before I do, post it in the comments section.

AHA.

It's been a little while but I'm hoping that today was the turning point to finally find some entry points into some stocks. First. a quick update on positions that I had talked about in the last couple of posts:

Lululemon Athletica (LULU) - I did take some profits on this although at $46 and not $44. Yes, I got a little greedy, but it worked out so I get to claim that I knew it would work out better by waiting a couple of days.

Apple (AAPL) - I took profits on this at the $160 mark and felt a little bad because it went higher and the options premiums even more so. The extra profit on the options is nice but the inflation in premium did cut down on the profits on closing some of the strangle positions. I will admit to getting scared (yes, it is possible) out of the AAPL Nov 200 calls when the price doubled (!) with a 0.10 cent jump in the stock price. Now that's bullish sentiment for earnings.

NASDAQ 100 (QQQQ) - I continue to accumulate Jan 08 Calls on this as I do every year. It was working great till today which took off a healthy 7% off the gains that I had so far.

Now that the wrap up is done, let's look forward. I can only hope that we are starting on the 1-2% correction that I planned on using to buy back into some key positions. LULU for sure, AAPL I might hold off on till after earnings, GOOG, GRMN, and some of the funds that I referenced in earlier posts.

Still at 50% cash so I am looking for interesting places to get new positions established. One interesting possibility is NXTQ which should start trading soon (Google it for more info).

AHA.

The previous post about my trading plan pretty much covers what I want to do this week so I won't go into more specifics since it would just be repeating myself.

I do anticipate some buying opportunities this week now that we are into the 4th quarter and window dressing season for managed portfolios is over.

I will post additional updates during the week should the need arise.

AHA.

A much delayed post, but I've been a little busy.

For me, things stand pretty much where I left off in my last post. I am at 65% cash. I have stepped back into some of my mutual funds to begin to rebuild a balanced portfolio. I am not stepping into too deeply into the market just yet because I believe that we are due for a at least a 1-2% selloff before October is out. I plan on using a downswing to return to a 75% invested/25% cash position.

Lots of elements will make up those positions, some of the mutual funds in case you are interested are:
CGM Focus Fund (CGMFX)
T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation Fund (PRWCX)
Julius Baer International Equity (JETAX)

The stocks that I did retain are doing well so no complaints on that front. Apple (AAPL) is on a nice little run. I don't plan on adding to this position at this point since I already have both stock, options, and LEAPs for it. I plan on taking some gains around $159 mark and adding to the position below $135 if it sees that level again. I have noticed that the halo effect here is resulting in overinflated premiums for Calls and I have been writing those for some short term gains.

The other stock that's been doing well has been Lululemon Athletica (LULU). I haven't really had the opportunity to add much to this position (see older posts for target prices) and I plan on taking some profits at the $44 mark.

Happy trading.

50 basis points it is then. That did take me by surprise. It would seem that The Fed is not willing to let the market look after itself. Not sure how that play out in the long run at this point.

Good news is that the plan for the week protected capital and still allowed me to participate in the gains, albeit limited by the fact that I was only 25% invested.

The star of the day for me turned out to be the CGM Focus Fund. It was up almost 5% today alone. Over the last few weeks, that makes it a 25% gain which is pretty awesome. I've been recommending it to people for some time and for those who chose to partake, I would suggest taking some money off the table and re-balancing their portfolios.

There was a lot of exuberance in the market today so I took advantage of some of that and wrote uncovered options on AAPL, VMW, and CME. I'll provide updates on these positions over the next few posts.

AHA.

The Fed watch continues...

At this point, I have reached 75% cash and might make it 80% before the trading day ends. I spent time flipping through the rags and business channels this morning and the pressure for a 25 basis point drop on the is really on.

Just about everyone seems to be counting on it and I suspect that at this point, The Fed may well have to do something just to prevent the market from coming off the rails. As such, I have revised odds:

• Nothing - 40%
• 25 basis point drop - 55%
• 50 basis point drop - 5%

Back to waiting....

AHA.

It's earlier than normal for me to come up with a plan for next week, but I thought a special edition was deserved considering the important (hyped though it is) of The Fed meeting.

Unfortunately people, including a lot of the "market pundits" are spreading the message that The Fed is going to save everyone with a 25 basis point drop in interest rates. I also hear a lot of talk about 50 point reductions. Even more frightening is that everyone is talking about it... I hear it at the grocery store, in taxis, waiters, and the like.

I think that interest in investing is always great, but when individual investors become gurus on key market events, that scares me. And yes, I do see the irony of my posting about trading advice as an individual investor myself, but my views are my personal trading plans and intended for the people who regularly ask me, "What are you doing in the market these days?"

My odds for what The Fed does next week:

• Nothing - 65%
• 25 basis point drop - 30%
• 50 basis point drop - 5%
  

If the market gets what it's anticipating (a drop of any size), the recovery continues, hopefully at a controlled pace. If it doesn't, there is significant downside which will be exaggerated by typical mob mentality.

So here is what it boils down to for me -- Capital Preservation. I am willing to give up a few percentage points of gains to protect myself against significant downside. By market close on Monday, I plan to be at 80% cash which includes reducing my positions in the mutual funds that have bounced back extremely strongly. I will maintain some stock positions in my favorites like AAPL and LULU. I haven't made the final call on my options positions yet, but I might close those out on Monday as well.

Good luck navigating the waters next week.

AHA.